Time is running out - or is it?
According to the Health Secretary Andy Burnham, the number of new cases of swine flu could reach 100,000 per day in the UK by the end of August. As many as 40 deaths a day are predicted by September should the current fatality rate remain the same and infection levels rise as expected.
If these projections become a reality it will place an overwhelming strain on the NHS, not to mention the already compromised British economy. This makes me wonder about the government’s policy of “treating” rather than “containing” the virus, considering the rate at which it now appears to be spreading.
Dr Margaret Chan, director general of the World Health Organisation (WHO) at a recent press conference announced the influenza pandemic alert had been raised from phase five to six, the highest level of alert. The alert was raised on the basis of available evidence and expert assessments that scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic had been met. Dr Chan assured us “the virus is pretty stable” but that we needed to “track and monitor” it for signs of change.
The WHO has defined the phases of a pandemic to provide a global framework to assist countries in preparing for a pandemic as well as response planning so why is it the government has not yet put contingency planning into practice to try and contain the virus, in particular for example in schools where there have been confirmed cases and whereby those attending are most susceptible.
The highest level of alert to me appears quite worrying considering the most severe influenza pandemic in the 20th century impacted with an estimated 40 to 50 million deaths worldwide. Last Wednesday alone 601 people in the UK were diagnosed with swine flu. The total number of cases in the UK stands at over seven and a half thousand and the global number of confirmed swine flu deaths has reached four hundred and twenty-nine.
According to the WHO to-date the majority of scientifically proven cases of the H1N1 virus have primarily presented in developed regions of the world. In time, it will spread to developing countries whose healthcare systems will likely be unable to cope with such high numbers of infections.
A number of areas I think will be worth tracking over the coming months include:
- To-date the virus has been prevalent in children and those that have weak immune systems- how is this pattern to develop in the coming months?
- Are developed countries to remain those ‘most at risk’ when compared with developing countries?
- Will the number of people contracting the virus increase in the winter months? If so by how many?
- What will tracking and monitoring this particular virus throughout the southern hemisphere’s winter teach us in the northern hemisphere should another outbreak occur this autumn
What do you think?
Tags: Andy Burnham, Dr Margaret Chan, H1N1, Pandemic flu, swine flu, WHO
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