Posts Tagged ‘Kim Jong-Il’

At 1.06 am on Monday morning the British Geological Survey stations in Herefordshire, Aberdeen and Devon suddenly began registering a tremor at magnitude five on the Richter scale. These tremors did not occur along a fault line and did not have the complex mix of P-waves and shear waves that are the tell-tale sign of an earthquake. Instead the tremors seemed to be caused by an explosion, which had its epicentre in the county of Kilju, deep in the mountains of north-eastern North Korea - the home of the P’unggye-yok nuclear test site.

South Korea stated immediately that these readings were probably caused by an underground atomic explosion by the North Koreans - an explosion the size of Hiroshima.

Suddenly Douglas Hogg’s moat; Jacqui Smith’s adult films and Damian McBride’s puerile emails, which have ruled the media in the last 2 months, are thrown into relief as the world is plunged into a serious, deep crisis. It is one of those challenges like the Bosnian war, the Suez Crisis and the Rwandan Genocide where you cannot help thinking that the UN looks feeble. Realistically what can the UN do to stop North Korea’s nuclear ambitions? They have the power of sanctions and the threat of isolation for the aggressor nation. For the UK during the Suez Crisis of 1956 these measures were enough to force the UK to back down over its intervention in Egypt. These measures designed and condoned by the US, Europe and the UK are effective against similar countries because they all want to be at the centre of the western world and genuinely fear being cast out by the international community.

But, for nations outside the western world, with a history of antagonism towards Europe and the US - do sanctions or the fear of UN condemnation court influence? I say no. North Korea has strong links with China and Russia - the two megaliths of Asia. With these alliances Kim Jong-Il can laugh in the face of UN pressure, as he has the support of two of the largest energy producers manufacturers and exporters in the world and permanent members of the UN Security Council. Also, which countries around the world would really stand in North Korea’s way if they further developed their nuclear ambitions? It is clear that despite having nuclear capability and strong armed forces the UK would do almost anything rather than use force against North Korea, because as Iraq and Vietnam show - foreign wars lose popularity very quickly. The world’s policing system, therefore, is almost solely confined to diplomatic measures.

In the last 5 years this crisis has developed and has shown the world’s inability to stop North Korea’s march towards developing a nuclear arsenal. In 2004 North Korea carried out its first nuclear test; in 2007 under multilateral pressure North Korea agreed to shut down its leading uranium enrichment site, but in April 2009 it seems these promises were empty as they fired a multistage rocket and vowed to start up the site once again. A month later and this latest nuclear test is recorded.

This is a dangerous situation - even more so since it must be asked why is North Korea absolutely determined to develop nuclear weapons? Are they really prepared to fire or is it, as one commentator suggested, just a means of making President Obama stand to attention. I hope it is political manoeuvring because for anyone who has read Nevil Shute’s On The Beach - the thought that North Korea might actually use its nuclear technology harbours up images of ghost towns, tumble weeds and nuclear fallout on a worldwide scale.

Hopefully the North Koreans are aware of the stake as well, because as has always been the case the principle of Mutually Assured Destruction is the best mean of ensuring nuclear safety. Hopefully Kim Jong-Il is aware and afraid of the nuclear backlash if he ever uses nuclear weapons. But that is a leap of faith and since it is evident that the western world can do little to stop the North Koreans if they have their mind set on gaining and using nuclear weapons the situation is suite terrifying, when you think about it. It seems like 20 years since the Berlin Wall fell we still have to place all of our faith in North Korea not using its technology. Personally relying on Mutually Assured Destruction, knowing that the West is powerless to do much more, is not particularly reassuring.