Posts Tagged ‘General Election’

So, on the day of the second televised leaders debates what are we to make of the new political landscape? Are we heading for a revolution in the way we see and perceive our political leaders or is it all just smoke and mirrors.

Certainly, there is a real danger that voters could be seen to be concentrating more on the televised debates than the policies of the main parties and we are seeing skewed polling figures as a result.

There is a danger that the polls are simply reflecting people’s reaction to the debates rather than their voting intention, a view reinforced by one poll’s immediate reaction from the debate showing the Lib Dems with a 51% share of the vote - more than enough to confirm Nick Clegg as Prime Minister with a healthy working majority.

These views are not necessarily based on the policies of the Lib Dem Party but how Nick Clegg is perceived by television viewers. The debates only provide time for the briefest of glimpses into the party’s policies - there is no time for any discussion on the the detail behind the policy headlines.

The subsequent reduction in the Lib Dem share of the vote in polls demonstrates that the televised debate certainly had a short term but significant effect in voters’ minds. The impact of the debate and the poll rise for the Lib Dems, even if short lived, has given a boost in momentum for the Lib Dems which may be hard for the other parties to counter.

So, has the televised debate reduced the election campaign to little more than a non-political beauty contest?

Not necessarily.

It will be up to David Cameron and Gordon Brown to react to the Clegg factor and I am sure that they will be working harder than ever to try to alter the perceptions and work on the lessons learned from the first debate to regain some lost ground.

This may give rise to personalised politics and possibly more negative campaigning, we shall see.

Either way, it is unlikely that the public will be taken in by magic tricks or sleight of hand.

Hung Parliament

We have also heard from the party leaders that “the people” will decide if there will be a hung Parliament or not.

I’m quite sure that if there was a candidate in every constituency under the name of “hung” or “hung Parliament” then they would have a better than even chance of being elected but let’s be clear, you cannot gerrymander or tactically vote for a hung parliament - it requires an unusual set of circumstances.

The people will certainly decide but they will not go into the polling booths thinking they can vote for a hung Parliament. If we end up with a hung Parliament it would be an associative outcome rather than causality.

The main points of the Budget as announced are as follows:

ECONOMY

• The economy is expected to grow between at 1 and 1.5% in 2010
• Growth forecast for 2011 revised to between 3% and 3.5%
• VAT, income tax or National Insurance to remain at present rates
• Borrowing will be £167bn this year - £11bn lower than the forecast of £178b
• Debt will be £100bn lower by 2013/14 than predicted at last year’s Budget
• One third of civil service jobs to be located away from London 

TAX:

• Stamp Duty threshold will be raised to £250,000 - nine out of ten first-time buyers will not be liable for Stamp Duty
• Stamp Duty on homes worth £1m increased to 5%
• The planned 3p increase in fuel duty will be phased - up by 1p in April, 1p in October and 1p in January 2011
• Alcohol duty will rise by 2% above inflation by 2013
• Duty on cider will go up by 10% above inflation from Sunday
• Duty on tobacco will increase by 1% above inflation immediately, then 2% in subsequent years
• Inheritance tax will be frozen for four years
• Tax agreements extended to three additional countries - Dominica, Grenada and Belize, to target tax evasion

PENSIONERS:

• The Government will consider scrapping the compulsory retirement age
• Pensioners’ higher winter fuel payment will continue next yea

BANKS:

• Everyone in the UK is to be guaranteed access to a bank account
• The Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds will lend £94bn to business - at least half to small and medium-sized firms.
• The Government will set up a Green Bank controlling £2bn of equity to focus on investing in greener, cleaner energy and transport

BUSINESS:

• Business rates will be cut for a year from October bringing a tax reduction for 500,000 small firms in England
• £2.5bn support for small business to boost skills and innovation
• Investment allowance for small firms doubled to £100,000
• £385m will be invested to maintain road network

FAMILIES:

• Families with one and two-year-olds will receive an extra £4 a week in child tax credits

More reaction to follow.

A foreign client asked us recently:

 “We have been hearing so much about the UK General Election recently, could you clarify what is going on.”

 Oh dear, we all groaned:

 “The Conservatives were bound to win” he continues “and then their poll lead shrinks and then they are looking good again and then it’s definitely a Labour victory. Now we hear Hung Parliament. Each day there is a new story: What is going on?”

This is probably the most challenging question public affairs execs face at the moment. I dread it because everyone has a different opinion based on a poll they have read, which assures them of a certain scenario.

 This is being fuelled by newspapers and political blogs publishing a huge volume of headline opinion poll figures, which seem to directly contradict each other.

 But I actually do not agree that the picture is so cloudy. I actually think that the emerging polls are, in many ways, relatively consistent, but there are factors that are clouding the picture.

So at the risk of developing an eggy face below I explain what I think will happen at the General Election and what is clouding the picture:

 1. The ignored indicators - When you dig below the surface of tabloid headlines to less interesting polling numbers, a consistent picture of the General Election emerges:

 a. The Labour Party has lost a great deal of the voters who voted for them in 2005; the Conservative Party have retained most of their supporters

b. National polls have shown that since 2006 the percentage of people who want a change of Government has stayed broadly the same - 70%

c. Polls and indicators from key marginal seats, which if won would ensure a good election result for the Conservative Party do not tally with the fluctuations recorded at national level. From my experiences the situation is far more consistent and is positive for David Cameron.

 So why do we ignore these numbers:

 2. The Role of Newspapers - Each national newspaper realises that in Election season new polling figures create a great headline. The Sunday Times carried the story of the Conservative lead shrinking to 2 points and immediately had a hook that ensured their newspaper was picked up by inquisitive voters. Yet, these headline poll numbers are taken out of context. We rarely read the scale of the survey; the immediate context or the questions that people are asked. We just see the headline figure and absorb it into our consciousness, thinking it is definitive when it is not. Unless you realise the situation the poll was created in how can you tell what it means?

Weighing these factors up I believe that the Conservative Party are on to win the General Election with a majority. I do believe that the hype of the election campaign means people are fluctuating in their opinion of the national parties and their leaders when asked in national polls.

But I think that this ignores the fact that on Election Day people will be forced to choose who they want to represent them in their constituency and the signs suggest that they will vote for a change. Whether they will vote for the reformed Conservative Party is an important issue, but I think in order to facilitate a change of Government floating voters will be prepared to vote for the Conservative Party. I think people do want to get rid of Gordon Brown and want a new Government.

I could be proved wrong, but I agree with a politician who told me recently that: “when the British people decide they want a change, they normally make sure it happens”. This is what the polls suggest and this is my prediction.

I read something interesting and provocative in PR Week today. It was an article outlining the views of different Directors of Public Affairs companies on David Cameron and Gordon Brown’s election campaigns. The article focused particularly on David Cameron’s announcements on the NHS yesterday and Labour’s retort, which could be seen as the two parties kicking off their election campaigns. One particular comment by Phillip Snape, Managing Director of PSA Communications, was extremely interesting. He said of the election campaigns:

‘No one is listening to them [Brown and Cameron]. Everyone has already made their minds up and this is all background music. It is boring.’

I find this a spurious point of view. It suggests that the ‘Punch and Judy’ politics of election campaigns - the adverts, the slogans and the glitzy promises - will have a relatively small effect on the majority of voters, who find this overt posturing off-putting. He, also, seems to find this element of the election run up ‘boring’.

I disagree on both counts. The next six months will be the critical last stage of a close and enthralling contest. The UK Polling Report is showing that the Labour Party’s poll showing has rallied in the second half of 2009, rising from an average of c.23% to c.29%, whilst the Conservative Party’s has fluctuated between 37% and 43% in the same period. This may suggest that the Conservative Party have a strong lead in the polls, but the number of seats they have to take from Labour means that these numbers would only realise roughly a 26 seat majority for the Conservative Party - a long way off certain victory. Clearly the unstable polls represent a general public still not absolutely certain who they want at the next election and whilst the Conservative Party will almost certainly have a higher share of the vote they are not ensured victory.

In this climate the next 6 months could be critical. Voters have had two and a half years to size up David Cameron and Gordon Brown - their characters, policies and styles - and still some are undecided. Yet, (unless they abstain) these voters will be forced to make up their mind in the next few months and in our modern society, filled with apathy, it is eminently feasible that an undecided voter could be swayed to vote one way or the other by an eye-catching policy, good debate performance or brilliant advertisement in the run up to the election.

For this reason I think the election campaigns will be extremely exciting and relevant and should not be dismissed.

But I think this is an interesting debate, what do you think? Is the election decided or is it still all up for grabs?

The Bills that were announced today were as follows:

Personal Care at Home Bill:

This will provide free personal care in their own homes for those with the highest need. Up to 350,000 people with the greatest needs could benefit from free charges and top-up fees for care in their own homes.

Children’s, Schools and Families Bill:

There will be a new duty on local authorities to act when parents are unhappy. Where standards are ‘unacceptably low’, schools will be closed. There will be an entitlement to one-to-one tuition if a pupil is falling behind.

Fiscal Responsibility Bill:

The Bill will enact the Government’s commitment to halve the deficit in four years.

Financial Services Bill:

The Bill will give the Government the power to intervene on bonuses, will create a new consumer financial advice body and enable firms to be less reliant on the taxpayers.

Crime and Security Bill:

The Bill will require parenting assessment to be carried out on parents of children aged 10 to 15 who are being considered for an anti-social care order. The police swill have to hold beat meetings;  perpetrators of domestic violence will be banned from their homes; DNA records on adults arrested but not charged will be kept for six years; there will be compulsory licensing for wheel-clampers.

Digital Economy Bill:

New age ratings for computer games will be introduced to protect children; universally available broadband in the UK will be rolled out; tackling on-line copyright infringement; preparing the UK to take advantage of the digital age.

Energy Bill:

More help for the most vulnerable households with their energy bills; a levy on electricity suppliers  to subsidise carbon capture and storage plants; Ofgem will be required to ensure customers get a better, fairer deal.

Flood and Water Management Bill:

Better protection for businesses, communities and homes from the risks of extreme weather.

Equality Bill:

There will be a new public sector duty to narrow the gap between rich and poor, ban age discrimination outside the workplace and introduce reporting for large employers on gender pay. Agency workers will receive equal treatment with staff members after 12 weeks in a job.

Child Poverty Bill:

The Bill will provide for the Government pledge to eradicate child poverty by 2020 and will set up a commission to monitor progress.

Constitutional Reform and Governance Bill:

The Civil Service will be put on a statutory footing; continued reform of the House of Lords - they will have the power to expel a Member; by-elections to elect hereditary peers will be ended. Peers will be allowed to resign and disclaim their peerages.

The draft House of Lords Reform Bill will set out how the Government will bring about a wholly or substantially selected second chamber of Parliament.

Bribery Bill:

The bill would help to reinforce integrity in the business and public sectors. There will be a comprehensive UK strategy for tackling foreign bribery and of bribing a foreign public official in order to obtain or retain business.

Cluster and Munitions Bill:

This bill will ban the use, development production, stockpiling, retention or transfer of cluster munitions.

Draft Bills

House of Lords Reform Bill:

Further reform for the House of Lords including ending the election of hereditary peers.

International Development Bill:

The Government will be committed to spend 0.7% of gross national income on international development by 2013.

The real question is - will this be enough to keep Gordon Brown at No 10?

What do you think?

So, the budget has been announced; what was widely reported as Alistair Darling’s greatest test, his biggest budget, the one he daren’t get wrong.

Or was it?

There was the usual figures on growth (or for this year, the lack of it), the usual predictions of annual growth (from 2011) and the tapering of public sector borrowing but where was the real meat of the budget? What was the Chancellor actually setting out?

Well, one thing was clear, he wasn’t setting out a rescue package for the economy, he wasn’t looking to make an example of the banks either, or any other sector. Rather, this was a very careful, steady, conservative budget.

With the economy in the state it is in, you would have thought the Chancellor would go to great lengths to emphasis the Government’s strategy to re-invigorate the economy and get the country back on track.

Yes, I know he said that but the budget didn’t deliver that and as always, it is what he didn’t say that is just as important as what he did say.

But before second guessing the Chancellor and exploring the dark and Brown recesses of his thinking, let’s reflect on what the budget did say.

Some pretty standard, expected increases in progressive taxes, consumables (alcohol, tobacco etc.) and the new upper tax band were announced. These had been pretty well leaked in advance, so no surprises there.

Some additional projects and money to help the unemployed, the housing market and the environment were unveiled, which should be well received but no big shocks, no big bang.

I did wonder why he was going to such great lengths to not really say very much and I started to think about those things he didn’t say.

The real message from this budget is that there is a general election next year.

By the content of his announcement today, the Chancellor all but confirmed that there will be time for a give-away election budget. This would mean, given the timescales needed for this budget to take effect, that there is unlikely to be an election this year.

Darling’s great gamble in this year’s budget was that the effects of this budget will help him to deliver in the next budget in time for the greatest gamble of all - the timing of the General Election.