Posts Tagged ‘General Election’

I read something interesting and provocative in PR Week today. It was an article outlining the views of different Directors of Public Affairs companies on David Cameron and Gordon Brown’s election campaigns. The article focused particularly on David Cameron’s announcements on the NHS yesterday and Labour’s retort, which could be seen as the two parties kicking off their election campaigns. One particular comment by Phillip Snape, Managing Director of PSA Communications, was extremely interesting. He said of the election campaigns:

‘No one is listening to them [Brown and Cameron]. Everyone has already made their minds up and this is all background music. It is boring.’

I find this a spurious point of view. It suggests that the ‘Punch and Judy’ politics of election campaigns - the adverts, the slogans and the glitzy promises - will have a relatively small effect on the majority of voters, who find this overt posturing off-putting. He, also, seems to find this element of the election run up ‘boring’.

I disagree on both counts. The next six months will be the critical last stage of a close and enthralling contest. The UK Polling Report is showing that the Labour Party’s poll showing has rallied in the second half of 2009, rising from an average of c.23% to c.29%, whilst the Conservative Party’s has fluctuated between 37% and 43% in the same period. This may suggest that the Conservative Party have a strong lead in the polls, but the number of seats they have to take from Labour means that these numbers would only realise roughly a 26 seat majority for the Conservative Party - a long way off certain victory. Clearly the unstable polls represent a general public still not absolutely certain who they want at the next election and whilst the Conservative Party will almost certainly have a higher share of the vote they are not ensured victory.

In this climate the next 6 months could be critical. Voters have had two and a half years to size up David Cameron and Gordon Brown - their characters, policies and styles - and still some are undecided. Yet, (unless they abstain) these voters will be forced to make up their mind in the next few months and in our modern society, filled with apathy, it is eminently feasible that an undecided voter could be swayed to vote one way or the other by an eye-catching policy, good debate performance or brilliant advertisement in the run up to the election.

For this reason I think the election campaigns will be extremely exciting and relevant and should not be dismissed.

But I think this is an interesting debate, what do you think? Is the election decided or is it still all up for grabs?

The Bills that were announced today were as follows:

Personal Care at Home Bill:

This will provide free personal care in their own homes for those with the highest need. Up to 350,000 people with the greatest needs could benefit from free charges and top-up fees for care in their own homes.

Children’s, Schools and Families Bill:

There will be a new duty on local authorities to act when parents are unhappy. Where standards are ‘unacceptably low’, schools will be closed. There will be an entitlement to one-to-one tuition if a pupil is falling behind.

Fiscal Responsibility Bill:

The Bill will enact the Government’s commitment to halve the deficit in four years.

Financial Services Bill:

The Bill will give the Government the power to intervene on bonuses, will create a new consumer financial advice body and enable firms to be less reliant on the taxpayers.

Crime and Security Bill:

The Bill will require parenting assessment to be carried out on parents of children aged 10 to 15 who are being considered for an anti-social care order. The police swill have to hold beat meetings;  perpetrators of domestic violence will be banned from their homes; DNA records on adults arrested but not charged will be kept for six years; there will be compulsory licensing for wheel-clampers.

Digital Economy Bill:

New age ratings for computer games will be introduced to protect children; universally available broadband in the UK will be rolled out; tackling on-line copyright infringement; preparing the UK to take advantage of the digital age.

Energy Bill:

More help for the most vulnerable households with their energy bills; a levy on electricity suppliers  to subsidise carbon capture and storage plants; Ofgem will be required to ensure customers get a better, fairer deal.

Flood and Water Management Bill:

Better protection for businesses, communities and homes from the risks of extreme weather.

Equality Bill:

There will be a new public sector duty to narrow the gap between rich and poor, ban age discrimination outside the workplace and introduce reporting for large employers on gender pay. Agency workers will receive equal treatment with staff members after 12 weeks in a job.

Child Poverty Bill:

The Bill will provide for the Government pledge to eradicate child poverty by 2020 and will set up a commission to monitor progress.

Constitutional Reform and Governance Bill:

The Civil Service will be put on a statutory footing; continued reform of the House of Lords - they will have the power to expel a Member; by-elections to elect hereditary peers will be ended. Peers will be allowed to resign and disclaim their peerages.

The draft House of Lords Reform Bill will set out how the Government will bring about a wholly or substantially selected second chamber of Parliament.

Bribery Bill:

The bill would help to reinforce integrity in the business and public sectors. There will be a comprehensive UK strategy for tackling foreign bribery and of bribing a foreign public official in order to obtain or retain business.

Cluster and Munitions Bill:

This bill will ban the use, development production, stockpiling, retention or transfer of cluster munitions.

Draft Bills

House of Lords Reform Bill:

Further reform for the House of Lords including ending the election of hereditary peers.

International Development Bill:

The Government will be committed to spend 0.7% of gross national income on international development by 2013.

The real question is - will this be enough to keep Gordon Brown at No 10?

What do you think?

So, the budget has been announced; what was widely reported as Alistair Darling’s greatest test, his biggest budget, the one he daren’t get wrong.

Or was it?

There was the usual figures on growth (or for this year, the lack of it), the usual predictions of annual growth (from 2011) and the tapering of public sector borrowing but where was the real meat of the budget? What was the Chancellor actually setting out?

Well, one thing was clear, he wasn’t setting out a rescue package for the economy, he wasn’t looking to make an example of the banks either, or any other sector. Rather, this was a very careful, steady, conservative budget.

With the economy in the state it is in, you would have thought the Chancellor would go to great lengths to emphasis the Government’s strategy to re-invigorate the economy and get the country back on track.

Yes, I know he said that but the budget didn’t deliver that and as always, it is what he didn’t say that is just as important as what he did say.

But before second guessing the Chancellor and exploring the dark and Brown recesses of his thinking, let’s reflect on what the budget did say.

Some pretty standard, expected increases in progressive taxes, consumables (alcohol, tobacco etc.) and the new upper tax band were announced. These had been pretty well leaked in advance, so no surprises there.

Some additional projects and money to help the unemployed, the housing market and the environment were unveiled, which should be well received but no big shocks, no big bang.

I did wonder why he was going to such great lengths to not really say very much and I started to think about those things he didn’t say.

The real message from this budget is that there is a general election next year.

By the content of his announcement today, the Chancellor all but confirmed that there will be time for a give-away election budget. This would mean, given the timescales needed for this budget to take effect, that there is unlikely to be an election this year.

Darling’s great gamble in this year’s budget was that the effects of this budget will help him to deliver in the next budget in time for the greatest gamble of all - the timing of the General Election.