Home > Blogs > Dot Comms > Archive for August, 2011

Archive for August, 2011

 

You cannot arrest an idea

August 8, 2011 | Written by Guest Blogger

This is cross-posted from my personal blog. The quote comes from the sole tweet left on the Twitter micro-blog account of LulzSec member Topiary.
QOTD
It also signals the likely start of something significant. Of the Anonymous and LulzSec suspects arrested by the UK authorities, they all share common traits:

  • Middle-class
  • Intelligent
  • Young

In previous generations, these would have been the followers of Marx and Engels, formed a punk band, they would have joined the International Brigade in Spain, set up a squat / commune or marched across China with the Red Army.

Ideologies aren’t beaten with criminal prosecutions or laws on internet behaviour; but with alternative better ideas. The internet in the West has a number of ideological tectonic plates butting up against each other. Some of these spring out of western values focused on the individual and existentialism, rather than the Confucian value system that permeate East Asian societies:

Grassroots Authority
Laissez-faire Regulation
Libertarian An instrument of control within a regulated walled garden
Human right Profit centre
Copyleft Copyright
Lean business Big business
Free-trade Digital protectionism / mercantilism
We the people Big media
Global village National primacy

This butting of ideological tectonic plates is similar to the challenges that pioneers of the Old West faced in a maturing United States. The key difference is that these digital desperadoes are not constrained by physical space and their numbers can be easily replenished.

Whilst the Old West was civilised; the civilising process also penalised many of the big business interests including the likes of Standard Oil, Northern Securities Company (railways) and American Tobacco Company with the Sherman Antitrust Act, and the Morgan family’s banks with the Glass–Steagall Act later on.

I suspect that things are going to get a lot worse for all parties involved throughout the Western world before they get better.

Comments (0) | Permalink

Digg It | Reddit | De.lic.ious

 

Shrink, Slash, Grow

August 4, 2011 | Written by Guest Blogger

David Maseng Will is a second year student at Princeton University who recently started a summer internship at Ruder Finn. Born and raised in Washington DC, he developed a passion for politics growing up in the centre of the free world, and David plans on concentrating his studies on politics and international relations.
for the blog
The views expressed in this work are solely those of the author and no not in any way reflect those of Ruder Finn.

How did we get here? On Friday 29th July, the United States Commerce Department reported that the economy grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of the year, and by 1.3% in the second quarter of 2011. As the three year anniversary of the global financial meltdown approaches, a serious assessment of the subsequent recovery initiatives is warranted. When President Bill Clinton left office in 2001, the United States had a budget surplus of over $200 billion. By implementing an expensive prescription drug program, the Toxic Assets Relief Program (TARP) and waging two wars, President George Bush managed to squander the excess funds and accrue unprecedented debt. Indeed, it was the Bush administration’s warped political philosophy of impulsive, hawkish foreign policy and reckless spending which is primarily responsible for bringing down the American economy. To be his successor was not an enviable task, but one Barack Obama sought nonetheless.

When President Obama took office in 2009, Democrats controlled the executive branch and both houses of congress, including a filibuster proof super-majority in the House of Representatives. With the country shedding approximately 750,000 jobs a month, it was time, we were told, for the progressive agenda to save the nation. And so a government takeover of healthcare was initiated by the $2 trillion Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, $862 billion was spent to stimulate the economy and an onslaught of regulations cascaded over the economy in the summer of 2010 by way of the Consumer Protection Act, which cost about $50 billion. Adding on the auto industry bailouts, the US debt skyrocketed past the $14 trillion dollar mark and through the legal borrowing limit, which was recently raised by congress. Two and a half years into his term, with the housing market still in shambles and the unemployment rate remaining sky high, it is time to recognize the failure of the progressive approach to economics.

If the stimulus package was not implemented, the nation was warned, the unemployment rate might rise to 8%. Well, after the bill’s passage, joblessness soared past 10% and now rests stubbornly at 9.2%. Obviously unable to cite substantive statistics, the Obama administration has attempted to defend its failed attempt at revitalization by cryptically painting an apocalyptic alternative reality void of the Recovery Act. The stimulus package averted another great depression. That is the feeble defence the administration has been reduced to. To swat away such senseless fear mongering, note that when the recession was officially declared over in June 2009, only 7.7% of the stimulus had been spent. Therefore, at best, the stimulus was irrelevant to the recovery, and more likely has hurt the nation’s progress by adding greatly to the deficit.

Most likely the greatest policy hindrance to job creation implemented by the administration is the Consumer Protection act. The positive impact of some added critical safeguards is dampened by the tidal wave of new regulations which will greatly chill job creation. Running conversely to the assertions of the act’s advocates is the reality that the law makes future crises more likely. Hal Scott, a professor of international financial systems at Harvard Law School, elucidates the negative impacts in a 19 July 2011 Financial Times op-ed marking the one year anniversary of the law’s passage. He states, “The Fed can no longer lend to individual companies, as it did to AIG…The treasury also can no longer use its economic stabilisation fund to guarantee money market funds. As a result, at a whiff of a new crisis, liquidity will dry up in a flash.” It becomes clear how the world cannot afford the progressive economic agenda, given the stifling effects of over-regulation.

To comprehend the detrimental nature of progressive policies, and to advocate the immediate implementation of conservative economic initiatives, Americans need not look farther than across the Atlantic. Coinciding with strict austerity, the pace of growth in the UK was anaemic, at 0.2%, in the second quarter of 2011. The figure has falsely been attributed to the shift of the UK government to living within its means. However, not only is Britain not as weak as the data might suggest, given that the economy has been hampered by natural disasters around the globe, and a pick-up in investor spending is expected.

The true culprits of the UK’s flagging economy are burdensome regulations on small businesses, as well as huge taxes on higher income earners and corporations. Britain is admirably taking the first of what must be many steps in cutting senseless regulations in its adoption of recommendations made by The Red Tape Commission. On taxes, to any sensible conservative, or moderate liberal for that matter, the idea of taxing job creators at 50% is incomprehensible.

It sure is tempting to dissemblingly label those earning enough to qualify for the 50% tax rate bracket as members of an idle echelon of billionaires, but such trite class warfare doesn’t pass the tests of decency or reality. In truth, government may impose the policy on people making as little as £150,000 a year. Not to diminish the value of such a grand sum, but the number dwindles when sapped by such a steep rate, and is further reduced by costs of business and living. For at Princeton University, the school which I attend back in America, and at numerous other academic institutions with generous financial aid policies, the family of a student making roughly the dollar equivalent to £150,000 a year receives financial aid. So as nice as it may be to picture this class of tax over-payers as flying far above the plight of the commoner in private jets, the reality is that this government theft of wealth reaches down to small businesses as well.

Free trade agreements signed between the UK and China, as well as by America with South Korea and Colombia, will no doubt boost the economies of all nations involved. For international competition and engagement, along with soft power pushes for social reform means free trade makes economic and moral sense in the eyes of conservatives. Unbridling the world’s innovators to unleash their inspiration is to truly stimulate the global economy. In the United States, George Bush hurt the country with his perversion of conservative principles. Next, Obama had all the tools and political capital he thought he needed, and his policies still failed to make the country better. In great powers like The United States and Britain, adopting sensible tax policy, as well as constructing a lean and nimble consumer protection network will be critical to each nation’s economic recovery.

Comments (1) | Permalink

Digg It | Reddit | De.lic.ious

 

The Google+ spam mystery

August 2, 2011 | Written by Guest Blogger

This is cross-posted from my personal blog. I’ve lurked on Google+ as the network hadn’t grown big enough for me to gain much use out of it. And then I started to receive updates from people I vaguely knew directly to my work email address. Basically spam. So I decided to run a trial update myself on the service to understand how this would have happened.
Google+
Here is a screenshot of the update that I created. I could see from drafting my update what the problem was, I’ve taken a detailed screen grab of the area just above Peter Cashmore’s head
Google+
This box is ticked by default, I guess Google thinks that this is the equivalent of HoTMaiL’s original viral signature: get your private, free email from Hotmail. However it is interesting to note that even early adopters ignore the tickboxes.

Comments (0) | Permalink

Digg It | Reddit | De.lic.ious

 

A problem called Bing

August 1, 2011 | Written by Guest Blogger

This is reposted from my personal blog. When the latest Microsoft results came out one of the biggest drags on it was losses made by the company’s online services business; specifically the search product Bing.

The challenge

Google has had an immense head start in building the best search engine (at least for Roman-based languages), it has built up an unrivaled search index, crawling mechanism and a search algorithm that goes through a complete iteration every three years or so according to Steven Levy’s In The Plex. The technical and audience experience challenge that Bing faces is akin to American car companies who woke up to Toyota and Volkswagen having changed the rules of motor manufacture and struggled to catch up as their German and Japanese rivals continued to further improve.

That isn’t to say that Google is unbeatable: Russian company Yandex, Korean company Naver and China’s Baidu have all managed to build search engines that better match the needs of their markets, but no one company has managed to challenge Google across markets.

When I was at Yahoo! we managed to build a search engine that provided a search experience that was as good in terms of relevance of the queries as what Google had to offer. But being just as good is not enough. Google isn’t just a search engine, its a habit, people look there automatically as routine and this is hard to break.

I find it hard to remember a time searching before Google, I remember that I used to use Excite, HotBot and AltaVista depending on what I was looking for and would ‘work’ the search engines to dig up what I wanted. Some time in 1998/9 I was reading a website (I think it may have been Wired or WebMonkey) came across Google and never went back. It was that good. Bob Cringely wrote that in order for us to make that change we have to perceive something to be 10 times better. Bing has never got anywhere close.

Many of the ‘innovations that Bing brought to the table were ‘borrowed’ from Ask.com, like its trade dress. Lycos Europe’s IQ service and Yahoo! both did really interesting stuff with social search; which is exceptionally prescient of Google’s more recent efforts (and involves some of the same people like Bradley Horowitz) but due to user experience and the brands not having ‘permission’ from consumers to be truly innovative; didn’t gain the level of acceptance they should have deserved. Ask had a really hot algorithmic search engine in Teoma (which I still use occasionally), but again it never got the audience it deserved.

So Bing has to work harder and pay more money to gain the traffic that it has:

  • Working with mobile carriers like Verizon to be the default search engine on the company’s mobile phones, paying media sites to have Bing as their search box
  • Arranging for a PC manufacturer to set Bing up as the default search engine on the internet browser that they supply as part of the software on PCs that they sell
  • Arranging for a Bing toolbar to be bundled with free-to-download software (like Adobe Acrobat reader)

The second problem that Microsoft seems to have (looking at both the online services division and the financial performance of Yahoo!) is that it is failing to monetise those audiences it has effectively. There are still too many searches happening with no relevant advertisements displayed alongside the organic results.

From a financial perspective, just how bad is it?

Well according to a Business Insider analysis piece written at the end of April:

Bing is paying about 3X as much for every incremental search query as it generates in revenue from that query.

What does that mean?

It means that for every $1 Microsoft generates from each new search query it buys, it spends $3 to get it.

(And that’s just direct costs–the costs of obtaining and processing the query. It doesn’t include sales and marketing, research and development, and general and administrative costs–all of which are subtracted from the -$2 Microsoft has already lost on every new query.)

And Microsoft is in a rather unique position to distribute Bing as the default search engine on Internet Explorer with many Windows PCs, otherwise gaining access to search audiences could come at an even higher cost.

If Microsoft was to sell Bing, who could buy it?

Hypothetically speaking, if Microsoft decided to sell Bing, there aren’t that many people that have the deep pockets, chutzpah or knowhow to take advantage of it, but here is a list of some of the more likely candidates:

  • Alibaba: whilst Jack Ma is a super-smart business man; he has enough problems extracting Yahoo! Inc. from his current business rather than acquiring Baidu
  • Aol: is in a similar position to Yahoo! in many respects with not enough cash on hand to do the deal and too many things that they need to address internally to even consider a Bing purchase
  • Apple: has the money, but there isn’t the incentive or the expertise to take on the integration of the business into Apple and the leviathan of a challenge that whipping Bing into a product that Apple could be proud of
  • Baidu: Robin Li and the team at Baidu certainly have the smarts to take on Bing, the finance could be made available via various sources in China. Baidu has smarts in search; particularly non-roman languages which happens to be where the market growth is likely to be. In addition, Bing would be an ideal platform to bring Bing’s concepts of box computing to western consumer markets. Microsoft would have the problem that it wasn’t selling its search arm but empowering the next competitor to challenge it in the mobile and desktop operating system space with a Baidu acquisition. The biggest issue is would this pass muster with US politicians? As you would have a nexus of wounded US pride, high technology and the politicised issue of censorship. Throw in a couple of Google lobbyists for good measure, stand back and watch it burn
  • Facebook: could buy Bing and it could be attractive to Microsoft; particularly if the purchase was made with some Facebook equity included. But they don’t need to do it and the shifting of the focus could adversely affect investor sentiment towards the great satan of social
  • Google: wouldn’t be able to buy Bing because it would set off antitrust alarms throughout the western world
  • Naspers: the South African media company has a reputation for making smart investments in online properties and could add its brand to a larger consortium
  • NHN: The Korean owners of Naver understand search and could bring a new fresh approach to non-Roman language search but they just don’t have the revenue to do it on their own. They could still be a wildcard in a private equity-based bid
  • SK Group: South Korea’s largest conglomerate has a number of successful online services that search would dovetail into, however they are already committed to investments in developing markets like Vietnam and have been burned by US-based investments in the past like the Helio and lost out on a recent bid for Blockbuster Inc. to Dish Networks
  • Tencent Holdings Limited: As a major online property in China, Bing maybe desirable as a way to help combat the march of Baidu. However, it is uncertain that Tencent would have the relevant deep technical knowledge to turn Bing from costly millstone to world-beating search engine. Like Baidu Tencent would also come under US political scrutiny. One thing in their favour would be having Naspers as a major shareholder – so taking some of the sting out of the anti-Chinese rhetoric likely to fly around
  • Yahoo!: couldn’t afford it, is struggling to grow the existing business that it had and has dissipated its search talent around Silicon Valley thanks to Bartz & Icahn. It would be a strategic pivot too many and would likely get killed in a shareholder revolt if they could find someone to bank roll the deal
  • Softbank / Yahoo! Japan: Masayoshi Son is an exceptionally savvy business man. Bing would have to be about more than business: self actualisation. Yahoo! Japan snubbed Bing in favour of Google recently, a purchase of Bing could be awkward
  • Yandex: it is doubtful that the Russian search business could raise enough capital to take over Bing; if it did it would have its work cut out to turn Bing around in terms of market share. But they would have the smarts to increase profitability of what they already have
  • Private equity: in theory a company like KKR could make the relevant phone calls and round up funding to buy Bing at the right price. They would have to find a management team, a path to cut costs and find a clear marketing proposition to keep audiences. Finally private equity would want to have an exit; there wouldn’t be that many acquisitive buyers, so they would have to look at some sort of public offering

Why keep Bing?

One of the reasons that I was so surprised that Yahoo! gave up on search was that it is not only a business providing a potentially great contextual advertising point of view. It is also the glue or the mortar that holds online services together. Given that there are so many screens are now part of the internet experience: mobile, television and desktop – the mortar is going to be even more critical in the coming years as the binding agent for a larger eco-system.

With productivity suites moving into the cloud, search becomes the new file system (like Spotlight on the Mac desktop) and Office (or its future cloud sibling) is the core of Microsoft.

More links:
Bing: Should Microsoft Sell It?

Here’s Why The Bing-Yahoo Deal Isn’t Working So Far

Microsoft Is Redoing Bing To Look More Like The New Windows Design

Microsoft Might Dump Twitter From Bing Search Results

Can we please stop pretending that Microsoft’s Bing is doing well

For the first time in nine months Bing doesn’t gain in search share

BING COPYING GOOGLE: Embarrassing But Brilliant

Comments (0) | Permalink

Digg It | Reddit | De.lic.ious

Subscribe

 

 

About the Bloggers

 

Categories

 

 

Recent Comments

 

Tags

 

 

Recent Post

 

 

RF Blogs Network

 

 

Blogroll

 

 

Archive